KRIC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

44%

14%

12%

12%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

EPSNO 58.8¢Risks 58.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.75u · EPS −58.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	18.1%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	6.1%	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	77.9%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	15.9%	74.0%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	38.2%	58.4%	2.1%	—	25.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	2.4%	30.4%	14.4%	—	29.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	43.2%	28.3%	33.0%	—	26.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	54.8%	20.1%	28.1%	—	6.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.4%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	31.5%	10.4%	15.7%	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	17.8%	15.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	25.5%	12.7%	11.3%	—	9.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	2.2%	17.8%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	1.5%	16.6%	6.3%	—	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	10.8%	11.3%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	15.9%	15.3%	8.2%	—	4.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	1.5%	14.0%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	13.9%	15.1%	2.1%	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	18.3%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	18.3%	9.0%	4.2%	—	4.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	14.8%	7.5%	0.0%	—	2.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	10.0%	8.1%	1.1%	0.0%	2.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	13.2%	7.4%	1.1%	—	2.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	15.1%	8.5%	2.5%	3.0%	3.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	9.8%	1.5%	—	2.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	71%	73.8°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	69.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	68.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	65.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	63.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	65.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗