KRIC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

44%

14%

12%

12%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

EPSNO 58.8¢Risks 58.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.75u · EPS −58.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	63.9%	50.0%	61.8%	22.9%	61.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	63.9%	50.0%	61.8%	22.9%	61.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	63.9%	50.0%	73.2%	22.9%	61.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	63.9%	50.0%	73.2%	22.9%	61.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	63.9%	50.0%	73.2%	22.9%	61.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:06+00:00	14.5%	50.0%	73.2%	38.1%	15.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	14.5%	50.0%	73.2%	38.1%	15.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:00	14.5%	50.0%	73.2%	38.1%	15.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	14.5%	50.0%	73.2%	38.1%	15.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	14.5%	50.0%	73.2%	38.1%	15.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	14.5%	50.0%	68.9%	38.1%	15.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	14.5%	35.1%	68.9%	38.1%	15.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:00	14.5%	35.1%	68.9%	38.1%	15.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	86.3%	35.1%	68.9%	38.1%	15.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	86.3%	35.1%	68.9%	38.1%	15.5%
2026-10-16T04:23:54+00:00	17.7%	38.0%	68.1%	45.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	17.7%	38.0%	50.0%	45.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	17.7%	38.0%	50.0%	45.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	17.7%	38.0%	50.0%	45.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	7.6%	38.0%	50.0%	45.2%	70.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	7.6%	38.0%	50.0%	45.2%	70.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	7.6%	38.0%	50.0%	45.2%	70.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	7.6%	38.0%	50.0%	45.2%	70.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	7.6%	38.0%	50.0%	45.2%	70.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	7.6%	11.6%	44.2%	45.2%	70.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	7.6%	11.6%	44.2%	45.2%	70.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	7.6%	11.6%	44.2%	45.2%	70.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	14.3%	11.6%	44.2%	12.3%	70.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	14.3%	11.6%	44.2%	12.3%	70.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	71%	73.8°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	69.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	68.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	65.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	63.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	65.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗