KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

80%

75%

70%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.1¢Risks 83.10u

EPSNO 16.9¢Risks 16.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.90u · EPS −16.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	—	—	—	83.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	95.8%	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	85.6%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	8.8%	61.3%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	72.0%	63.8%	11.2%	—	57.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	86.1%	5.5%	48.5%	—	28.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	53.8%	8.7%	56.1%	—	35.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	77.6%	50.8%	54.0%	—	39.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.5%	17.9%	62.1%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	68.5%	72.1%	50.0%	—	43.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	59.3%	61.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	77.2%	73.1%	57.0%	—	48.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	73.6%	81.6%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	79.1%	71.8%	79.1%	38.2%	—	49.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	81.0%	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	76.8%	79.0%	42.3%	—	55.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	78.1%	70.9%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	75.7%	77.3%	46.9%	—	58.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	89.4%	81.0%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	93.0%	83.1%	54.4%	51.1%	57.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	78.6%	0.0%	—	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	71.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	71.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	80%	68.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	68.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	67.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗