KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

80%

75%

70%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.1¢Risks 83.10u

EPSNO 16.9¢Risks 16.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.90u · EPS −16.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:12+00:00	29.6%	44.9%	78.0%	17.0%	91.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	29.6%	44.9%	78.0%	17.0%	91.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	29.6%	44.9%	78.0%	17.0%	91.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	29.6%	44.9%	87.6%	17.0%	91.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	29.6%	44.9%	87.6%	17.0%	91.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	29.6%	44.9%	87.6%	17.0%	91.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	37.0%	44.9%	87.6%	17.0%	72.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	37.0%	44.9%	87.6%	17.0%	72.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	37.0%	44.9%	87.6%	17.0%	72.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	37.0%	44.9%	87.6%	17.0%	72.2%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	37.0%	44.9%	87.6%	59.0%	72.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	37.0%	44.9%	94.8%	59.0%	72.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	37.0%	44.9%	94.8%	59.0%	72.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	37.0%	44.9%	94.8%	59.0%	72.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	58.1%	44.9%	94.8%	59.0%	72.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	58.1%	44.9%	94.8%	59.0%	72.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	58.1%	44.9%	94.8%	59.0%	72.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	58.1%	44.9%	94.8%	59.0%	72.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	94.2%	65.3%	95.6%	56.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	94.2%	65.3%	95.6%	56.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	94.2%	65.3%	94.0%	56.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	94.2%	65.3%	94.0%	56.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	94.2%	65.3%	94.0%	56.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	94.2%	65.3%	94.0%	56.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	93.5%	65.3%	94.0%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	93.5%	65.3%	94.0%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	93.5%	65.3%	94.0%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	93.5%	65.3%	94.0%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	93.5%	65.3%	87.9%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	93.5%	65.3%	87.9%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	93.5%	65.3%	87.9%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:50+00:00	93.5%	65.3%	87.9%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	94.2%	65.3%	87.9%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	94.2%	65.3%	87.9%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	94.2%	65.3%	87.9%	60.9%	79.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	91.7%	70.2%	96.3%	71.2%	82.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	91.7%	70.2%	96.3%	71.2%	82.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	91.7%	70.2%	96.3%	71.2%	82.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	91.7%	70.2%	95.5%	71.2%	82.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	91.7%	70.2%	95.5%	71.2%	82.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	91.7%	70.2%	95.5%	71.2%	82.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	92.1%	70.2%	95.5%	74.9%	80.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	92.1%	70.2%	95.5%	74.9%	80.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	92.1%	70.2%	95.5%	74.9%	80.3%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	92.1%	70.2%	95.5%	74.9%	80.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	92.1%	70.2%	95.5%	74.9%	80.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	92.1%	70.2%	96.0%	74.9%	80.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	92.1%	70.2%	96.0%	74.9%	80.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:35+00:00	92.1%	70.2%	96.0%	74.9%	80.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	92.4%	70.2%	96.0%	74.9%	80.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	92.4%	70.2%	96.0%	74.9%	80.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	92.4%	70.2%	96.0%	74.9%	80.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	71.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	71.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	80%	68.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	68.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	67.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗