KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

82%

66%

55%

48%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.9¢Risks 67.90u

EPSNO 32.1¢Risks 32.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.10u · EPS −32.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	75.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	92.2%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	76.9%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	4.5%	48.0%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	59.1%	50.0%	5.8%	—	43.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	76.3%	2.5%	34.3%	—	17.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	38.7%	4.1%	40.9%	—	22.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	64.1%	35.2%	38.2%	—	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	9.2%	45.9%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	52.5%	56.6%	33.8%	—	27.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	42.4%	44.0%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	62.1%	57.0%	39.6%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	57.1%	67.4%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	54.6%	63.6%	22.3%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	65.7%	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	59.6%	62.4%	24.7%	—	36.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	60.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	57.2%	59.2%	27.6%	—	37.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	76.3%	63.5%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	82.4%	65.9%	33.1%	30.1%	36.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	59.0%	0.0%	—	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	71.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	71.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	66%	69.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	67.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗