KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

82%

66%

55%

48%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.9¢Risks 67.90u

EPSNO 32.1¢Risks 32.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.10u · EPS −32.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:43+00:00	87.9%	44.8%	75.2%	47.2%	68.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	87.9%	44.8%	89.7%	47.2%	68.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	87.9%	44.8%	89.7%	47.2%	68.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	87.9%	44.8%	89.7%	47.2%	68.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	87.9%	44.8%	89.7%	47.2%	68.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	89.7%	44.8%	89.7%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	89.7%	44.8%	89.7%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	89.7%	44.8%	89.7%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	89.7%	44.8%	89.7%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	89.7%	51.5%	93.3%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	89.7%	51.5%	93.3%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	89.7%	51.5%	93.3%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	89.7%	51.5%	93.3%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	88.0%	51.5%	93.3%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	88.0%	51.5%	93.3%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	88.0%	38.6%	93.3%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	88.0%	38.6%	93.3%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	88.0%	38.6%	90.6%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	88.0%	38.6%	90.6%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	88.0%	38.6%	90.6%	61.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	87.1%	38.6%	90.6%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	87.1%	38.6%	90.6%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	87.1%	38.6%	90.6%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	87.1%	38.6%	90.6%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	87.1%	38.6%	90.6%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	87.1%	38.6%	92.2%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	87.1%	38.6%	92.2%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	87.1%	38.6%	92.2%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	85.2%	38.6%	92.2%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	85.2%	38.6%	92.2%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	85.2%	38.6%	92.2%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	85.2%	38.6%	92.2%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:00	85.2%	38.6%	92.2%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	85.2%	38.6%	91.8%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	85.2%	38.6%	91.8%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	85.2%	38.6%	91.8%	46.8%	67.4%
2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00	81.9%	38.6%	91.8%	54.5%	66.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	81.9%	38.6%	91.8%	54.5%	66.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	81.9%	38.6%	91.8%	54.5%	66.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	81.9%	38.6%	91.8%	54.5%	66.5%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	81.9%	38.6%	91.8%	54.5%	66.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:00	81.9%	47.5%	88.2%	54.5%	66.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	81.9%	47.5%	88.2%	54.5%	66.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	81.9%	47.5%	88.2%	54.5%	66.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	81.9%	47.5%	88.2%	54.5%	66.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	82.0%	47.5%	88.3%	54.5%	66.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	71.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	71.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	66%	69.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	67.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗