KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

50%

50%

22%

18%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

HRESNO 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.40u · HRES −58.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	86.5%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	65.8%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	2.1%	34.8%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	45.1%	36.2%	2.7%	—	30.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	63.6%	1.0%	22.1%	—	9.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	25.1%	1.7%	27.0%	—	12.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	48.4%	21.8%	24.2%	—	14.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	4.1%	30.4%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	36.1%	40.1%	20.1%	—	15.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	26.7%	28.1%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	44.8%	39.6%	24.1%	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	39.3%	50.0%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	36.4%	45.4%	11.0%	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	47.2%	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	40.4%	43.2%	12.1%	—	20.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	41.1%	32.6%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	36.9%	38.8%	13.4%	—	20.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	57.4%	42.6%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	64.9%	44.5%	16.2%	14.3%	18.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	36.7%	0.0%	—	15.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	65%	73.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	69.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	69.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	65.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	63.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 70°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗