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KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
65%
EPS
50%
WN2
50%
AIFS
22%
HRES
18%
Consensus
40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 41.6¢Risks 41.60u
VS
HRESNO 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.40u · HRES −58.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00AIFS Single: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00AIFS Single: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00AIFS Single: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00AIFS Single: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00AIFS Single: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.4% · 2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.3% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.3% · 2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.3% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.3% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00IFS HRES: 15.6% · 2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00IFS HRES: 15.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:0010-15 11:3910-15 20:0610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:0032.2%67.4%61.8%15.6%22.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:0032.2%48.3%61.8%15.6%22.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:0032.2%48.3%61.8%15.6%22.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:0074.2%48.3%61.6%15.9%22.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:0074.2%48.3%61.6%15.9%22.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:0074.2%50.0%61.6%15.9%22.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:0074.2%50.0%61.6%15.9%22.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:0074.2%50.0%68.2%15.9%22.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:0074.2%50.0%68.2%15.9%22.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:0074.2%50.0%68.2%15.9%22.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:0074.2%50.0%68.2%15.9%22.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:0020.0%50.0%68.2%17.9%65.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:0020.0%50.0%68.2%17.9%65.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:0020.0%50.0%68.2%17.9%65.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:0020.0%50.0%68.2%17.9%65.3%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:0020.0%50.0%50.0%17.9%65.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:0020.0%50.0%50.0%17.9%65.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:0020.0%50.0%50.0%17.9%65.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:0021.5%50.0%50.0%17.9%65.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:0021.5%50.0%50.0%17.9%65.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:0021.5%50.0%50.0%17.9%65.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:0021.5%50.0%50.0%17.9%65.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON65%73.4°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend55%70.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble50%69.5°F4.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 250%69.5°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single22%65.0°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
IFS HRES18%63.6°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 70°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗