KRIC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 22:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.6¢Risks 15.60u

AIFSNO 84.4¢Risks 84.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.40u · AIFS −84.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:06+00:00	2.0%	3.6%	8.5%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	2.0%	3.6%	8.5%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:00	2.0%	3.6%	8.5%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	2.0%	3.6%	8.5%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	2.0%	3.6%	8.5%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	17.6%	2.5%	7.0%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	17.6%	2.5%	7.0%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	17.6%	2.8%	7.0%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	17.6%	2.8%	7.0%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	17.6%	2.8%	9.7%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	17.6%	2.8%	9.7%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	17.6%	2.8%	9.7%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	17.6%	2.8%	9.7%	0.8%	4.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	0.8%	2.8%	9.7%	1.0%	30.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	0.8%	2.8%	9.7%	1.0%	30.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	0.8%	2.8%	9.7%	1.0%	30.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	0.8%	2.8%	9.7%	1.0%	30.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	30%	73.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	71.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	69.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	63.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	64.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261022-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗