KRIC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

82%

74%

46%

45%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.8¢Risks 67.85u

EPSNO 32.1¢Risks 32.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.15u · EPS −32.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	88.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	64.0%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	13.2%	60.0%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	7.4%	77.0%	17.5%	—	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	16.1%	69.6%	37.8%	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	40.2%	64.2%	70.4%	—	37.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	38.2%	57.9%	28.1%	—	28.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	0.0%	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	36.1%	56.6%	45.8%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	35.8%	53.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	62.9%	67.8%	60.4%	83.3%	32.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	69.0%	—	—	30.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	67.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	66.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	65.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	63.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	63.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗