KRIC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

56%

48%

30%

26%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

ICONNO 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.00u · ICON −58.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	—	—	—	57.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	44.8%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	5.2%	40.0%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	2.4%	58.4%	7.2%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	6.2%	48.5%	19.4%	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	20.5%	41.7%	48.5%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	18.4%	34.5%	11.9%	—	12.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	0.0%	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	16.2%	32.2%	23.2%	—	6.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	15.7%	28.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	37.1%	42.2%	34.6%	62.1%	13.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	42.9%	—	—	11.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	58%	67.3°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	66.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	63.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	26%	60.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261024-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 67°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗