KRIC / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

56%

48%

30%

26%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

ICONNO 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.00u · ICON −58.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00	9.0%	64.8%	73.4%	16.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	9.0%	64.8%	73.4%	16.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	9.0%	64.8%	73.4%	16.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	9.0%	64.8%	73.4%	16.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	9.0%	64.8%	73.4%	16.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	9.0%	55.2%	69.5%	16.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	9.0%	55.2%	69.5%	16.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	9.0%	55.2%	69.5%	16.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	36.4%	55.2%	69.5%	16.1%	30.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	36.4%	55.2%	69.5%	16.1%	31.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	36.4%	58.3%	69.5%	16.1%	31.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	36.4%	58.3%	69.5%	16.1%	31.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	36.4%	58.3%	52.3%	16.1%	31.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	36.4%	58.3%	52.3%	16.1%	31.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	36.4%	58.3%	52.3%	16.1%	31.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	36.4%	58.3%	52.3%	16.1%	31.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	19.2%	58.3%	52.3%	47.5%	25.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	19.2%	58.3%	52.3%	47.5%	25.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	19.2%	58.3%	52.3%	47.5%	25.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	19.2%	58.3%	52.3%	47.5%	25.7%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	19.2%	58.3%	30.5%	47.5%	25.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	19.2%	58.3%	30.5%	47.5%	25.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	19.2%	58.3%	30.5%	47.5%	25.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:50+00:00	19.2%	58.3%	30.5%	47.5%	25.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	55.5%	58.3%	30.5%	47.5%	25.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	55.5%	58.3%	30.5%	47.5%	25.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	55.5%	58.3%	30.5%	47.5%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	58%	67.3°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	66.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	63.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	26%	60.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261024-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 67°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗