KRIC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

81%

60%

44%

36%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.1¢Risks 61.10u

HRESNO 38.9¢Risks 38.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.90u · HRES −38.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	25.7%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	67.0%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	0.4%	55.4%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	53.5%	62.4%	4.4%	—	45.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	37.1%	52.9%	23.2%	—	39.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	43.2%	54.6%	51.5%	—	35.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	59.5%	63.3%	50.0%	80.0%	49.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	68.8%	—	—	52.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	70.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	70.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	60%	67.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	64.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	63.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗