WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KRIC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
86%
AIFS
81%
ICON
60%
EPS
44%
HRES
36%
Consensus
65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 61.1¢Risks 61.10u
VS
HRESNO 38.9¢Risks 38.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.90u · HRES −38.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00AIFS Single: 82.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00ICON: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00ICON: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00ICON: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00ICON: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00ICON: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:0082.6%41.8%81.6%54.3%69.5%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:0082.6%41.8%80.0%54.3%69.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:0082.6%41.8%80.0%54.3%69.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:0082.6%41.8%80.0%54.3%69.5%
2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:0077.6%41.8%80.0%36.4%60.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0077.6%41.8%80.0%36.4%60.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0077.6%41.8%80.0%36.4%60.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:0077.6%41.8%80.0%36.4%60.5%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:0077.6%41.8%80.0%36.4%60.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:0077.6%43.5%85.8%36.4%60.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:0077.6%43.5%85.8%36.4%60.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:0077.6%43.5%85.8%36.4%60.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:0081.3%43.5%85.8%36.4%60.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:0081.3%43.5%85.8%36.4%60.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 286%70.5°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single81%70.3°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
National Blend63%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON60%67.3°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%66.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble44%64.8°F4.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES36%63.2°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗