KRIC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

76%

66%

48%

33%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.45u

EPSNO 44.5¢Risks 44.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.55u · EPS −44.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	64.9%	50.9%	68.9%	23.8%	11.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	64.9%	50.9%	68.9%	23.8%	11.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	64.9%	50.9%	68.9%	23.8%	11.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	64.9%	50.9%	68.9%	23.8%	11.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	64.9%	40.6%	61.5%	23.8%	11.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	64.9%	40.6%	61.5%	23.8%	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	64.9%	40.6%	61.5%	23.8%	11.2%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	64.9%	40.6%	61.5%	23.8%	11.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	74.6%	40.6%	61.5%	23.8%	11.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	74.6%	40.6%	61.5%	23.8%	11.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	74.6%	33.1%	61.5%	23.8%	11.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	74.6%	33.1%	61.5%	23.8%	11.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	74.6%	33.1%	69.5%	23.8%	11.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	74.6%	33.1%	69.5%	23.8%	11.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	74.6%	33.1%	69.5%	23.8%	11.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	78.8%	33.1%	69.5%	48.1%	65.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	78.8%	33.1%	69.5%	48.1%	65.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	78.8%	33.1%	69.5%	48.1%	65.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	78.8%	33.1%	69.5%	48.1%	65.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	78.8%	33.1%	69.5%	48.1%	65.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	78.8%	33.1%	75.9%	48.1%	65.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	78.8%	33.1%	75.9%	48.1%	65.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	78.8%	33.1%	75.9%	48.1%	65.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	77.8%	33.1%	75.9%	48.1%	65.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	77.8%	33.1%	75.9%	48.1%	65.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	77.8%	33.1%	75.9%	48.1%	65.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	77.8%	33.1%	75.9%	48.1%	65.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	70.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	70.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	66%	70.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	66.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	64.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261025-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗