KRIC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

76%

66%

48%

33%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.45u

EPSNO 44.5¢Risks 44.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.55u · EPS −44.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	21.0%	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	60.9%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	0.2%	48.6%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	46.5%	55.6%	3.0%	—	38.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	30.4%	45.6%	17.9%	—	32.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	35.8%	46.9%	43.9%	—	28.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	51.6%	55.6%	42.1%	73.9%	41.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	61.3%	—	—	44.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	70.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	70.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	66%	70.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	66.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	64.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261025-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗