KRIC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

66%

62%

40%

40%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.4¢Risks 61.40u

EPSNO 38.6¢Risks 38.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.60u · EPS −38.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	16.9%	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	54.5%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	0.1%	41.9%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	39.6%	48.6%	2.0%	—	32.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	24.3%	38.5%	13.6%	—	26.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	28.9%	39.4%	36.5%	—	22.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	43.6%	47.6%	34.5%	67.0%	33.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	53.3%	—	—	36.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	71.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	69.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	69.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗