KRIC / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

66%

62%

40%

40%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.4¢Risks 61.40u

EPSNO 38.6¢Risks 38.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.60u · EPS −38.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	69.8%	25.2%	74.0%	25.7%	48.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	69.8%	25.2%	74.0%	25.7%	48.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	69.8%	25.2%	74.0%	25.7%	48.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	69.8%	25.2%	79.2%	25.7%	48.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	69.8%	25.2%	79.2%	25.7%	48.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	69.8%	25.2%	79.2%	25.7%	48.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	71.7%	25.2%	79.2%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	71.7%	25.2%	79.2%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	71.7%	25.2%	79.2%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	71.7%	25.2%	79.2%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	71.7%	25.2%	79.2%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	71.7%	25.2%	78.0%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	71.7%	25.2%	78.0%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:35+00:00	71.7%	25.2%	78.0%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	69.1%	25.2%	78.0%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	69.1%	25.2%	78.0%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	69.1%	25.2%	78.0%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:02+00:00	69.1%	25.2%	78.0%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	69.1%	25.2%	78.0%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	69.1%	25.2%	81.6%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	69.1%	25.2%	81.6%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	69.1%	25.2%	81.6%	45.2%	53.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	65.7%	25.2%	81.6%	45.2%	62.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	65.7%	25.2%	81.6%	45.2%	62.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:20+00:00	65.7%	25.2%	81.6%	45.2%	62.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	65.7%	25.2%	81.6%	45.2%	62.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:07+00:00	65.7%	39.9%	82.9%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	65.7%	39.9%	82.9%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	65.7%	39.9%	82.9%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	65.7%	39.9%	82.9%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	65.8%	39.9%	82.9%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	65.8%	39.9%	82.9%	40.4%	62.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	71.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	69.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	69.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗