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KRIC / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
49%
WN2
25%
HRES
21%
ICON
9%
EPS
1%
Consensus
9%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 25.2¢Risks 25.20u
VS
EPSNO 74.8¢Risks 74.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.80u · EPS −74.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:07+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:07+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 21.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:07+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 9.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:07+00:0049.3%1.1%25.2%21.0%9.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0049.3%1.1%25.2%21.0%9.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0049.3%1.1%25.2%21.0%9.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0049.3%1.1%25.2%21.0%9.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single49%78.4°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 225%75.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES21%73.3°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend12%72.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON9%65.2°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%70.5°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261027-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗