KRIC / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

25%

21%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.2¢Risks 25.20u

EPSNO 74.8¢Risks 74.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.80u · EPS −74.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	17.3%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	23.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	16.8%	—	4.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	10.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	10.4%	—	5.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	11.6%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	0.1%	21.3%	5.9%	5.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	16.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	49%	78.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	75.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	73.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	9%	65.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	70.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261027-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗