KSAN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 93°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.0¢Risks 12.05u

EPSNO 87.9¢Risks 87.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.95u · EPS −87.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	32.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	40.1%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	53.9%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	44.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	50.0%	46.5%	1.7%	—	0.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	50.7%	1.6%	—	0.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	13.4%	31.6%	14.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	22.4%	17.9%	16.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	22.5%	8.3%	18.9%	—	0.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	7.5%	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	29.9%	14.6%	22.8%	—	0.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	31.0%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	29.7%	12.4%	22.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	18.4%	8.8%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	17.1%	12.1%	33.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	12.4%	11.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.8%	5.8%	32.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	20.5%	2.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	27.3%	4.7%	45.6%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.1%	4.0%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.9%	3.8%	2.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	11.4%	1.7%	0.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.3%	3.3%	1.7%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.2%	1.2%	1.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.0%	4.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	0.5%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	1.3%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.8%	5.7%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	5.3%	1.6%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	93.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3114
ICON	24%	90.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0576
National Blend	15%	88.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0222
AIFS Single	7%	86.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0045
WeatherNext 2	2%	86.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0004
IFS HRES	<1%	81.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261017-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 93°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗