KSAN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 93°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.0¢Risks 12.05u

EPSNO 87.9¢Risks 87.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.95u · EPS −87.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:45:28+00:00	22.5%	0.9%	8.7%	0.9%	67.6%
2026-10-11T04:30:57+00:00	22.5%	0.9%	8.7%	0.9%	67.6%
2026-10-11T05:16:10+00:00	22.5%	0.9%	6.9%	0.9%	67.6%
2026-10-11T06:01:18+00:00	22.5%	0.9%	6.9%	0.9%	67.6%
2026-10-11T06:46:29+00:00	22.5%	0.9%	6.9%	0.9%	67.6%
2026-10-11T07:32:49+00:00	16.7%	0.9%	6.9%	2.7%	67.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	16.7%	0.9%	6.9%	2.7%	67.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00	16.7%	0.9%	6.9%	2.7%	67.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00	16.7%	0.9%	6.9%	2.7%	67.6%
2026-10-11T10:34:25+00:00	16.7%	0.9%	6.9%	2.7%	67.6%
2026-10-11T11:20:17+00:00	16.7%	0.0%	5.1%	2.7%	67.6%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	16.7%	0.0%	5.1%	2.7%	67.6%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	16.7%	0.0%	5.1%	2.7%	67.6%
2026-10-11T13:35:57+00:00	12.0%	0.0%	5.1%	2.7%	67.6%
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	5.2%	2.6%	67.6%
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	5.2%	2.6%	67.6%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	5.2%	2.6%	67.6%
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	5.2%	2.6%	67.6%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	7.6%	2.6%	67.6%
2026-10-11T18:13:15+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	7.6%	2.6%	67.6%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	11.7%	0.0%	7.6%	2.6%	67.6%
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	6.3%	0.0%	7.6%	4.0%	37.1%
2026-10-11T20:28:43+00:00	6.3%	0.0%	7.6%	4.0%	37.1%
2026-10-11T21:13:56+00:00	6.3%	0.0%	7.6%	4.0%	37.1%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	6.3%	0.0%	7.6%	4.0%	37.1%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	6.3%	0.0%	7.6%	4.0%	37.1%
2026-10-11T23:29:39+00:00	6.3%	0.0%	1.3%	4.0%	37.1%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	6.3%	0.0%	1.3%	4.0%	37.1%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	6.3%	0.0%	1.3%	4.0%	37.1%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	6.3%	0.0%	1.3%	4.0%	37.1%
2026-10-12T02:30:32+00:00	6.3%	0.0%	1.3%	4.0%	37.1%
2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00	6.3%	0.0%	1.3%	4.0%	37.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00	7.1%	0.0%	3.1%	0.3%	21.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	7.1%	0.0%	3.1%	0.3%	21.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	7.1%	0.0%	3.1%	0.3%	21.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	7.1%	0.0%	2.3%	0.3%	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	7.1%	0.0%	2.3%	0.3%	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	7.1%	0.0%	2.3%	0.3%	21.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	8.1%	0.0%	2.3%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	8.1%	0.0%	2.3%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	8.1%	0.0%	2.3%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	8.1%	0.0%	2.3%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	8.1%	0.0%	2.3%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	8.1%	0.0%	1.2%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	8.1%	0.0%	1.2%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	8.1%	0.0%	1.2%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	1.2%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	1.2%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	1.2%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	1.2%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	1.2%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	2.2%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	2.2%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:42+00:00	5.4%	0.0%	2.2%	1.6%	8.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:40+00:00	6.7%	0.0%	2.2%	0.3%	24.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	6.7%	0.0%	2.2%	0.3%	24.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	6.7%	0.0%	2.2%	0.3%	24.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	6.7%	0.0%	2.2%	0.3%	24.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	6.7%	0.0%	1.9%	0.3%	24.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	6.7%	0.0%	1.9%	0.3%	24.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	6.7%	0.1%	1.9%	0.3%	24.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:41+00:00	6.7%	0.1%	1.9%	0.3%	24.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	6.7%	0.1%	1.9%	0.3%	24.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	6.7%	0.1%	1.9%	0.3%	24.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	93.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3114
ICON	24%	90.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0576
National Blend	15%	88.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0222
AIFS Single	7%	86.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0045
WeatherNext 2	2%	86.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0004
IFS HRES	<1%	81.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261017-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 93°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗