KSAN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

23%

22%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.7¢Risks 21.65u

HRESNO 78.3¢Risks 78.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +78.35u · HRES −78.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	32.4%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	60.6%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	72.2%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	68.8%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	74.3%	55.6%	6.9%	—	5.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	75.1%	35.0%	65.0%	—	4.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	73.6%	40.9%	54.6%	—	4.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	75.2%	17.9%	59.5%	—	3.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	60.7%	49.2%	63.9%	—	2.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	25.3%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	64.6%	37.9%	73.1%	—	1.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	62.4%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	52.8%	57.3%	52.8%	—	1.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	67.4%	47.2%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	75.3%	49.0%	82.9%	—	1.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	65.6%	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	47.9%	39.8%	67.9%	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	61.5%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	58.7%	17.6%	47.8%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	52.2%	19.8%	0.7%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	57.0%	32.0%	33.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	60.7%	24.4%	28.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	61.1%	15.9%	10.0%	4.3%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	60.2%	20.9%	20.9%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	55.4%	18.2%	29.5%	6.5%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	45.8%	23.2%	36.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	52.9%	30.5%	30.5%	3.2%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	59.0%	27.2%	27.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	40.6%	22.6%	15.2%	2.2%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	41.8%	19.2%	22.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
ICON	40%	84.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1592
AIFS Single	23%	82.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0534
IFS Ensemble	22%	82.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0462
WeatherNext 2	6%	81.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0037
IFS HRES	3%	78.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0012
National Blend	1%	83.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261018-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗