KSAN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

23%

22%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.7¢Risks 21.65u

HRESNO 78.3¢Risks 78.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +78.35u · HRES −78.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:16+00:00	30.7%	13.6%	10.8%	12.6%	74.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	30.7%	13.6%	10.8%	12.6%	74.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	30.7%	13.6%	10.8%	12.6%	74.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	30.7%	13.6%	10.8%	12.6%	74.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	30.7%	13.6%	10.8%	12.6%	74.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	30.7%	13.6%	10.8%	12.6%	74.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	25.7%	13.6%	10.8%	12.6%	75.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	25.7%	13.6%	10.8%	12.6%	75.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	25.7%	13.6%	10.8%	12.6%	75.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	25.7%	13.6%	10.8%	12.6%	75.3%
2026-10-14T10:34:59+00:00	25.7%	13.6%	10.8%	7.2%	75.3%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	25.7%	15.9%	11.3%	7.2%	75.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:16+00:00	25.7%	15.9%	11.3%	7.2%	75.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	25.7%	15.9%	11.3%	7.2%	75.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	23.7%	15.9%	11.3%	7.2%	75.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	23.7%	15.9%	11.3%	7.2%	75.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	23.7%	16.6%	9.8%	9.7%	66.1%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	23.7%	16.6%	9.8%	9.7%	66.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	23.7%	16.6%	14.1%	9.7%	66.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	23.7%	16.6%	14.1%	9.7%	66.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:42+00:00	23.7%	16.6%	14.1%	9.7%	66.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:40+00:00	22.8%	16.6%	14.1%	6.4%	81.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	22.8%	16.6%	14.1%	6.4%	81.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	22.8%	16.6%	14.1%	6.4%	81.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	22.8%	16.6%	14.1%	6.4%	81.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	22.8%	16.6%	13.0%	6.4%	81.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	22.8%	16.6%	13.0%	6.4%	81.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	22.8%	19.3%	13.0%	6.4%	81.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:41+00:00	22.8%	19.3%	13.0%	6.4%	81.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	20.7%	19.5%	13.0%	6.4%	81.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	20.7%	19.5%	13.0%	6.4%	81.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	20.2%	25.7%	6.9%	6.8%	53.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	20.2%	25.7%	9.8%	6.8%	53.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	20.2%	25.7%	9.8%	6.8%	53.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	20.2%	25.7%	9.8%	6.8%	53.4%
2026-10-17T07:45:19+00:00	20.2%	25.7%	9.8%	2.1%	45.5%
2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00	20.2%	25.7%	9.8%	2.1%	45.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	20.2%	25.7%	9.8%	2.1%	45.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	20.2%	25.7%	9.8%	2.1%	45.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	20.2%	25.7%	9.8%	2.1%	45.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	20.2%	15.4%	7.0%	2.1%	45.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	20.2%	15.4%	7.0%	2.1%	45.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	20.2%	15.4%	7.0%	2.1%	45.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	19.5%	15.4%	7.0%	2.1%	45.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	19.4%	15.9%	7.0%	2.1%	45.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:58+00:00	23.1%	21.5%	9.6%	3.4%	39.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	23.1%	21.5%	6.1%	3.4%	39.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	23.1%	21.5%	6.1%	3.4%	39.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	23.1%	21.5%	6.1%	3.4%	39.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	23.1%	21.5%	6.1%	3.4%	39.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
ICON	40%	84.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1592
AIFS Single	23%	82.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0534
IFS Ensemble	22%	82.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0462
WeatherNext 2	6%	81.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0037
IFS HRES	3%	78.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0012
National Blend	1%	83.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261018-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗