KSAN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 88°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

15%

11%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.5¢Risks 38.45u

EPSNO 61.5¢Risks 61.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.55u · EPS −61.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	22.4%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	48.1%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	60.3%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	56.1%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	61.8%	41.6%	3.3%	—	2.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	62.3%	22.6%	50.7%	—	1.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	59.8%	27.0%	39.4%	—	1.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	61.0%	9.3%	43.6%	—	1.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	44.2%	33.0%	47.5%	—	0.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	13.7%	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	47.4%	22.8%	57.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	44.6%	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	34.7%	39.1%	34.7%	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	49.0%	29.2%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	57.7%	30.4%	67.8%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	46.0%	24.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	28.5%	21.9%	47.9%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	40.6%	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	37.1%	7.0%	27.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	30.5%	7.9%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	34.1%	14.7%	15.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	37.0%	9.7%	11.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	36.5%	5.2%	2.8%	0.9%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	34.9%	7.2%	7.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	29.5%	5.7%	11.3%	1.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	21.1%	7.6%	14.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	25.6%	10.8%	10.8%	0.5%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	29.8%	8.6%	8.6%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.2%	6.1%	3.4%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.0%	4.5%	5.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	74%	93.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.5402
National Blend	53%	88.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2767
AIFS Single	15%	81.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0213
IFS HRES	11%	79.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0112
WeatherNext 2	9%	80.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0077
IFS Ensemble	3%	80.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0012

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261018-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 88°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗