KSAN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 88°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

15%

11%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.5¢Risks 38.45u

EPSNO 61.5¢Risks 61.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.55u · EPS −61.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:49+00:00	27.1%	11.2%	12.1%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	27.1%	11.2%	12.1%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00	27.1%	11.2%	12.1%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00	27.1%	11.2%	12.1%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:25+00:00	27.1%	11.2%	12.1%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:17+00:00	27.1%	3.6%	16.5%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	27.1%	3.6%	16.5%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	27.1%	3.6%	16.5%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:57+00:00	24.2%	3.6%	16.5%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	24.3%	3.6%	16.6%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	24.3%	3.4%	16.6%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	24.3%	3.4%	16.6%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	24.3%	3.4%	16.6%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	24.3%	3.4%	15.1%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:15+00:00	24.3%	3.4%	15.1%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	24.3%	3.4%	15.1%	7.3%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	17.2%	3.4%	15.1%	10.6%	73.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:43+00:00	17.2%	3.4%	15.1%	10.6%	73.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:56+00:00	17.2%	3.4%	15.1%	10.6%	73.6%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	17.2%	3.4%	15.1%	10.6%	73.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	17.2%	3.4%	15.1%	10.6%	73.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:39+00:00	17.2%	3.4%	8.8%	10.6%	73.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	17.2%	3.4%	8.8%	10.6%	73.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	17.2%	3.4%	8.8%	10.6%	73.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	14.6%	3.4%	8.8%	10.6%	73.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:32+00:00	14.6%	3.4%	8.8%	10.6%	73.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00	14.6%	3.4%	8.8%	10.6%	73.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	74%	93.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.5402
National Blend	53%	88.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2767
AIFS Single	15%	81.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0213
IFS HRES	11%	79.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0112
WeatherNext 2	9%	80.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0077
IFS Ensemble	3%	80.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0012

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261018-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 88°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗