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KSAN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
24%
EPS
6%
AIFS
6%
WN2
1%
HRES
<1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 12.4¢Risks 12.40u
VS
HRESNO 87.6¢Risks 87.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.60u · HRES −87.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 54.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 55.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 52.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 36.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 26.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 39.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 36.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 30.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 24.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.8% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 55.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 49.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 43.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 32.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 35.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 39.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 48.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 26.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 58.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 37.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0010-03 12:0010-11 06:0010-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:001.0%————2.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:004.7%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:002.1%————2.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0010.8%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0022.4%————5.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:002.5%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0037.5%————3.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0031.6%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0011.0%————3.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:002.2%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:007.5%————3.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:004.5%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:002.8%————2.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:003.2%————3.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:005.8%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:002.3%————4.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:001.0%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:003.9%————6.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:001.9%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0014.1%————4.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0022.3%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0018.5%—18.1%——2.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0010.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0013.5%—41.9%——2.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0013.1%—16.8%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:006.5%—53.9%——1.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:007.6%—55.3%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:007.7%—49.3%——1.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:006.0%—41.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:003.3%54.9%34.9%2.2%—1.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:002.4%—24.2%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:003.2%55.1%17.5%43.4%—1.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:004.8%—20.5%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:005.2%52.3%21.1%32.3%—1.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:004.3%—21.7%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.9%53.2%6.4%35.9%—0.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:002.9%—18.4%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:001.8%36.1%25.8%39.3%—0.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:002.2%9.5%23.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.5%38.8%16.7%48.2%—0.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.0%35.9%29.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.2%26.6%30.6%26.6%—0.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.7%39.7%21.7%——0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.6%48.0%22.5%58.7%—0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.5%36.3%17.7%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.3%20.4%15.1%37.8%—0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.3%30.7%8.8%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.3%27.3%4.0%19.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.2%21.4%4.5%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%24.2%9.0%9.4%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.1%26.3%5.5%7.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%25.6%2.6%1.3%0.4%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%23.8%3.7%3.7%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%19.1%2.8%6.1%0.6%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%12.4%3.7%8.1%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%15.4%5.5%5.5%0.2%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%18.1%4.1%4.1%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%7.7%2.6%1.3%0.1%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%7.3%1.7%2.3%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast56%89.0°F3.4°F2026-10-16 02:000.3114
ICON24%86.0°F3.5°F2026-10-16 00:000.0576
IFS Ensemble6%82.7°F3.7°F2026-10-16 00:000.0036
AIFS Single6%82.1°F4.1°F2026-10-16 06:000.0034
National Blend2%84.0°F2.2°F2026-10-16 06:000.0004
WeatherNext 21%81.5°F3.1°F2026-10-16 00:000.0001
IFS HRES<1%78.7°F4.1°F2026-10-16 00:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261018-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 12 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 89°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗