KSAN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 89°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.4¢Risks 12.40u

HRESNO 87.6¢Risks 87.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.60u · HRES −87.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:02:07+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	6.0%	8.0%	70.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	6.0%	8.0%	70.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	5.1%	8.0%	70.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	5.1%	8.0%	70.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	5.1%	8.0%	70.1%
2026-10-12T07:49:11+00:00	12.1%	1.9%	5.1%	8.3%	72.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00	12.1%	1.9%	5.1%	8.3%	72.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	12.1%	1.9%	5.1%	8.3%	72.5%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	12.1%	1.9%	5.1%	8.3%	72.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	12.1%	1.9%	5.1%	8.3%	72.5%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	12.1%	1.9%	4.7%	8.3%	72.5%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	12.1%	1.2%	4.7%	8.3%	72.5%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	12.1%	1.2%	4.7%	8.3%	72.5%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	17.3%	1.2%	4.7%	8.3%	72.5%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	17.3%	1.3%	4.8%	8.3%	72.5%
2026-10-13T04:16:35+00:00	17.8%	1.1%	6.8%	14.6%	70.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	17.8%	1.1%	5.5%	14.6%	70.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	17.8%	1.1%	5.5%	14.6%	70.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	17.8%	1.1%	5.5%	14.6%	70.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	17.8%	1.1%	5.5%	14.6%	70.6%
2026-10-13T08:04:25+00:00	12.7%	1.1%	5.5%	3.3%	69.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	12.7%	1.1%	5.5%	3.3%	69.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	12.7%	1.1%	5.5%	3.3%	69.5%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	12.7%	1.1%	5.5%	3.3%	69.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	12.7%	1.9%	2.2%	3.3%	69.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:44+00:00	12.7%	1.9%	2.2%	3.3%	69.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	12.7%	1.9%	2.2%	3.3%	69.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	12.7%	1.9%	2.2%	3.3%	69.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	13.8%	1.9%	2.3%	3.3%	69.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	13.8%	1.9%	2.3%	3.3%	69.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00	8.5%	3.4%	2.2%	2.0%	53.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	8.5%	3.4%	2.2%	2.0%	53.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	8.5%	3.4%	2.2%	2.0%	53.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	8.5%	3.4%	2.8%	2.0%	53.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	8.5%	3.4%	2.8%	2.0%	53.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	8.5%	3.4%	2.8%	2.0%	53.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	10.4%	3.4%	2.8%	2.9%	41.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	10.4%	3.4%	2.8%	2.9%	41.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	10.4%	3.4%	2.8%	2.9%	41.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	10.4%	3.4%	2.8%	2.9%	41.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	10.4%	3.4%	2.8%	2.9%	41.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	10.4%	3.4%	1.8%	2.9%	41.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	10.4%	3.4%	1.8%	2.9%	41.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	10.4%	3.4%	1.8%	2.9%	41.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	8.5%	3.4%	1.8%	2.9%	41.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	8.5%	3.4%	1.8%	2.9%	41.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	8.5%	3.4%	1.8%	2.9%	41.8%
2026-10-16T04:25:13+00:00	6.4%	4.6%	1.3%	1.4%	26.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	6.4%	4.6%	1.6%	1.4%	26.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	6.4%	4.6%	1.6%	1.4%	26.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	6.4%	4.6%	1.6%	1.4%	26.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	6.7%	4.6%	1.6%	1.4%	24.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	6.7%	4.6%	1.6%	1.4%	24.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	6.7%	4.6%	1.6%	1.4%	24.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	6.7%	4.6%	1.6%	1.4%	24.0%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	6.7%	4.6%	1.6%	1.4%	24.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	6.7%	5.9%	1.2%	1.4%	24.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	6.7%	5.9%	1.2%	1.4%	24.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	6.7%	5.9%	1.2%	1.4%	24.0%
2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00	5.8%	5.9%	1.2%	0.8%	24.0%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	5.8%	6.0%	1.2%	0.8%	24.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3114
ICON	24%	86.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0576
IFS Ensemble	6%	82.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0036
AIFS Single	6%	82.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0034
National Blend	2%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0004
WeatherNext 2	1%	81.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0001
IFS HRES	<1%	78.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261018-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 12 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 89°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗