KSAN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.3¢Risks 4.15u

WN2NO 91.7¢Risks 45.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.85u · WN2 −45.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	14.3%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	35.9%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	47.4%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	42.6%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	47.9%	28.6%	1.4%	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	47.8%	13.2%	36.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	44.7%	16.0%	25.8%	—	0.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	45.2%	4.3%	28.8%	—	0.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	28.6%	19.5%	31.5%	—	0.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	6.4%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	30.7%	11.8%	39.6%	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	27.9%	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	19.6%	23.0%	19.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	30.9%	15.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	38.5%	15.9%	49.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	27.4%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	9.8%	28.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	22.0%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	19.0%	2.1%	12.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	14.1%	2.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	16.0%	5.1%	5.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.5%	2.9%	3.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	16.6%	1.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.0%	1.8%	1.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.3%	1.2%	3.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.7%	1.7%	4.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.3%	2.5%	2.5%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.9%	1.7%	1.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.4%	1.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.1%	0.6%	0.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	44%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1954
ICON	16%	86.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0259
AIFS Single	4%	82.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0017
IFS Ensemble	3%	82.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0012
IFS HRES	<1%	78.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0001
National Blend	<1%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	81.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Diego · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗