KSAN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.3¢Risks 4.15u

WN2NO 91.7¢Risks 45.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.85u · WN2 −45.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:50+00:00	16.6%	5.4%	6.1%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	16.6%	5.4%	6.1%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00	16.6%	5.4%	6.1%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00	16.6%	5.4%	6.1%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:25+00:00	16.6%	5.4%	6.1%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:17+00:00	16.6%	1.1%	8.4%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	16.6%	1.1%	8.4%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	16.6%	1.1%	8.4%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:57+00:00	14.5%	1.1%	8.4%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	14.6%	1.1%	8.4%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	14.6%	1.0%	8.4%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	14.6%	1.0%	8.4%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	14.6%	1.0%	8.4%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	14.6%	1.0%	7.5%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:15+00:00	14.6%	1.0%	7.5%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	14.6%	1.0%	7.5%	3.9%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	9.6%	1.0%	7.5%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:43+00:00	9.6%	1.0%	7.5%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:56+00:00	9.6%	1.0%	7.5%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	9.6%	1.0%	7.5%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	9.6%	1.0%	7.5%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:39+00:00	9.6%	1.0%	3.9%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	9.6%	1.0%	3.9%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	9.6%	1.0%	3.9%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	7.9%	1.0%	3.9%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:32+00:00	7.9%	1.0%	3.9%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00	7.9%	1.0%	3.9%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-12T04:02:07+00:00	7.9%	1.0%	3.9%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	7.9%	1.0%	3.9%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	7.9%	1.0%	3.3%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	7.9%	1.0%	3.3%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	7.9%	1.0%	3.3%	5.9%	66.5%
2026-10-12T07:49:11+00:00	8.7%	1.0%	3.3%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00	8.7%	1.0%	3.3%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	8.7%	1.0%	3.3%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	8.7%	1.0%	3.3%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	8.7%	1.0%	3.3%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	8.7%	1.0%	2.9%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	8.7%	0.5%	2.9%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	8.7%	0.5%	2.9%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	2.9%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	12.9%	0.6%	3.0%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T15:27:51+00:00	12.9%	0.6%	3.0%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	3.0%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	3.0%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	3.0%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	3.0%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	12.9%	0.5%	3.0%	6.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	14.6%	0.5%	3.0%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	14.6%	0.5%	3.0%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	14.6%	0.5%	3.0%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	14.6%	0.5%	3.0%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	14.6%	0.5%	4.4%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	14.6%	0.5%	4.4%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	14.6%	0.5%	4.4%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	14.6%	0.5%	4.4%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:51+00:00	13.3%	0.5%	4.4%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	13.3%	0.5%	4.4%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	13.3%	0.5%	4.4%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-13T04:16:35+00:00	13.3%	0.5%	4.4%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	13.3%	0.5%	3.5%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	13.3%	0.5%	3.5%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	13.3%	0.5%	3.5%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	13.3%	0.5%	3.5%	11.4%	65.5%
2026-10-13T08:04:25+00:00	8.9%	0.5%	3.5%	2.2%	63.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	8.9%	0.5%	3.5%	2.2%	63.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	8.9%	0.5%	3.5%	2.2%	63.3%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	8.9%	0.5%	3.5%	2.2%	63.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	8.9%	0.8%	1.2%	2.2%	63.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:44+00:00	8.9%	0.8%	1.2%	2.2%	63.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	8.9%	0.8%	1.2%	2.2%	63.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	8.9%	0.8%	1.2%	2.2%	63.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	1.3%	2.2%	63.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	1.3%	2.2%	63.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	1.3%	2.2%	63.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	1.3%	2.4%	63.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	1.8%	2.4%	63.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	1.8%	2.4%	63.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	1.8%	2.4%	63.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	1.8%	2.4%	49.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	1.8%	2.4%	49.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	1.8%	2.4%	49.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	1.8%	2.4%	49.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	1.8%	3.5%	49.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	49.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	49.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	49.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	49.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	49.3%
2026-10-14T03:00:16+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	49.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	49.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	49.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	49.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	49.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	9.5%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	49.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	6.4%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	44.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	6.4%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	44.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	6.4%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	44.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	6.4%	0.8%	1.4%	3.3%	44.2%
2026-10-14T10:34:59+00:00	6.4%	0.8%	1.4%	1.2%	44.2%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	6.4%	1.6%	1.1%	1.2%	44.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:16+00:00	6.4%	1.6%	1.1%	1.2%	44.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	6.4%	1.6%	1.1%	1.2%	44.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	5.6%	1.6%	1.1%	1.2%	44.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	5.6%	1.6%	1.1%	1.2%	45.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.2%	45.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.2%	45.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.2%	45.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.2%	45.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.2%	45.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.2%	45.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	7.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	7.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	7.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	7.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	7.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	7.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	7.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	7.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:42+00:00	5.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.8%	33.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:40+00:00	4.7%	1.7%	1.6%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	4.7%	1.7%	1.6%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	4.7%	1.7%	1.6%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	4.7%	1.7%	1.6%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	4.7%	1.7%	1.0%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	4.7%	1.7%	1.0%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	4.7%	2.4%	1.0%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:41+00:00	4.7%	2.4%	1.0%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	1.0%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	1.0%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	1.0%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	1.0%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.5%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.5%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.5%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.5%	0.8%	45.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.5%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.5%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.5%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.5%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.6%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.6%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.6%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.6%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.6%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.6%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.6%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-16T04:25:13+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.6%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.7%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.7%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	0.7%	0.8%	18.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	0.7%	0.8%	16.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	0.7%	0.8%	16.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	0.7%	0.8%	16.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	0.7%	0.8%	16.1%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	4.1%	2.5%	0.7%	0.8%	16.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	4.1%	3.4%	0.5%	0.8%	16.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	4.1%	3.4%	0.5%	0.8%	16.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	4.1%	3.4%	0.5%	0.8%	16.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	44%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1954
ICON	16%	86.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0259
AIFS Single	4%	82.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0017
IFS Ensemble	3%	82.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0012
IFS HRES	<1%	78.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0001
National Blend	<1%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	81.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Diego · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗