KSAN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 83°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

29%

23%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 22.7¢Risks 22.75u

WN2NO 77.2¢Risks 77.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +77.25u · WN2 −77.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:11+00:00	18.6%	28.6%	11.4%	19.3%	9.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00	18.6%	28.6%	11.4%	19.3%	9.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	18.6%	28.6%	11.4%	19.3%	9.0%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	18.6%	28.6%	11.4%	19.3%	9.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	18.6%	28.6%	11.4%	19.3%	9.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	18.6%	28.6%	11.3%	19.3%	9.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	18.6%	44.0%	11.3%	19.3%	9.0%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	18.6%	44.0%	11.3%	19.3%	9.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	25.4%	44.0%	11.3%	19.3%	9.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	25.5%	44.0%	11.4%	19.3%	9.1%
2026-10-12T15:27:51+00:00	25.5%	44.0%	11.4%	19.3%	9.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	25.5%	41.3%	11.4%	19.3%	9.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	25.5%	41.3%	13.4%	19.3%	9.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	25.5%	41.3%	13.4%	19.3%	9.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	25.5%	41.3%	13.4%	19.3%	9.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	25.5%	41.3%	13.4%	19.3%	9.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	21.7%	41.3%	13.4%	27.4%	81.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	21.7%	41.3%	13.4%	27.4%	81.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	21.7%	41.3%	13.4%	27.4%	81.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	21.7%	41.3%	13.4%	27.4%	81.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	21.7%	41.3%	14.3%	27.4%	81.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	21.7%	41.3%	14.3%	27.4%	81.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	21.7%	41.3%	14.3%	27.4%	81.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	21.7%	41.3%	14.3%	27.4%	81.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:51+00:00	20.7%	41.3%	14.3%	27.4%	81.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	20.7%	41.3%	14.3%	27.4%	81.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	20.7%	41.3%	14.3%	27.4%	81.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	18.7%	43.2%	7.7%	9.3%	44.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	18.7%	43.2%	7.7%	9.3%	44.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	18.7%	43.2%	7.7%	9.3%	44.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	18.7%	43.2%	7.7%	9.3%	44.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	18.7%	43.2%	7.7%	9.3%	44.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	18.7%	43.2%	7.7%	9.3%	44.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00	19.4%	43.2%	7.7%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	19.4%	43.2%	7.7%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	19.4%	43.2%	7.7%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	19.4%	43.2%	7.7%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	19.4%	43.2%	7.7%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	19.4%	43.2%	6.9%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	19.4%	43.2%	6.9%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	19.4%	43.2%	6.9%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	18.1%	43.2%	6.9%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	18.1%	43.2%	6.9%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	18.1%	43.2%	6.9%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	18.1%	43.2%	6.9%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	19.4%	34.2%	6.1%	4.4%	33.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	19.4%	34.2%	6.1%	4.4%	33.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	19.4%	34.2%	5.3%	4.4%	33.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	19.4%	34.2%	5.3%	4.4%	33.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	19.4%	34.2%	5.3%	4.4%	33.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	19.4%	34.2%	5.3%	4.4%	33.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	23.0%	34.2%	5.3%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	23.0%	34.2%	5.3%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	23.0%	34.2%	5.3%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	23.0%	34.2%	5.3%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	23.0%	34.6%	4.1%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	23.0%	34.6%	4.1%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	23.0%	34.6%	4.1%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	23.0%	34.6%	4.1%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	24.5%	34.6%	4.1%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	24.5%	34.6%	4.1%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	24.5%	34.6%	4.1%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:58+00:00	24.5%	34.6%	4.1%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	24.5%	34.6%	6.1%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	24.5%	34.6%	6.1%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	24.5%	34.6%	6.1%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	24.5%	34.6%	6.1%	6.2%	33.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:57+00:00	26.3%	34.6%	6.1%	7.7%	30.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	26.3%	34.6%	6.1%	7.7%	30.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	26.3%	34.6%	6.1%	7.7%	30.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	26.3%	34.6%	6.1%	7.7%	30.5%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	26.3%	38.9%	10.2%	7.7%	30.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	26.3%	38.9%	10.2%	7.7%	30.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	26.3%	38.9%	10.2%	7.7%	30.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	26.3%	38.9%	10.2%	7.7%	30.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	23.1%	39.1%	10.2%	7.7%	30.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00	23.1%	39.1%	10.2%	7.7%	30.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	10.2%	7.7%	30.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	10.2%	7.7%	30.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	4.6%	7.7%	30.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:38+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	4.6%	7.7%	30.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	4.6%	7.7%	30.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	23.9%	41.5%	4.6%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	23.9%	41.5%	4.6%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	23.9%	41.5%	4.6%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	23.9%	41.5%	4.6%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	23.9%	41.5%	4.6%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	23.9%	41.5%	3.4%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	23.9%	41.5%	3.4%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	23.9%	41.5%	3.4%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	3.4%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	3.4%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	3.4%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	3.4%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	3.4%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	4.0%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	4.0%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	23.1%	41.5%	4.0%	8.1%	28.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	42%	81.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1722
ICON	29%	80.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0824
AIFS Single	23%	79.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0534
NWS forecast	13%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.0164
National Blend	9%	81.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0081
IFS HRES	8%	77.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0066
WeatherNext 2	4%	77.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0016

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261019-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗