KSAN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 83°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

29%

23%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 22.7¢Risks 22.75u

WN2NO 77.2¢Risks 77.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +77.25u · WN2 −77.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	26.2%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	36.0%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.1%	13.5%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	78.6%	24.1%	18.0%	—	8.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	60.1%	17.0%	47.8%	—	6.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	46.9%	20.5%	26.4%	—	5.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	42.1%	51.6%	41.3%	—	5.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	41.7%	30.8%	59.1%	—	5.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	37.4%	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	50.9%	13.1%	27.7%	—	3.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	42.9%	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	36.4%	17.8%	33.9%	—	1.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	30.9%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	37.6%	12.6%	30.4%	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	36.3%	14.0%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	29.4%	9.4%	25.1%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	34.5%	5.2%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	37.1%	9.9%	7.0%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	41.0%	8.3%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	36.3%	8.5%	16.0%	6.8%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	37.0%	7.0%	13.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	43.8%	9.5%	19.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	44.9%	10.9%	18.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	40.7%	12.7%	17.3%	5.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	33.8%	17.3%	18.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	31.8%	18.2%	25.6%	3.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	29.8%	10.5%	15.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	29.0%	5.7%	16.1%	3.7%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	37.0%	6.8%	21.6%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	42%	81.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1722
ICON	29%	80.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0824
AIFS Single	23%	79.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0534
NWS forecast	13%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.0164
National Blend	9%	81.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0081
IFS HRES	8%	77.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0066
WeatherNext 2	4%	77.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0016

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261019-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗