KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

95%

91%

82%

69%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 83.9¢Risks 83.90u

HRESNO 16.1¢Risks 16.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +16.10u · HRES −16.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	60.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	47.5%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	50.6%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	13.9%	54.0%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	91.5%	45.8%	46.5%	—	54.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	42.0%	86.5%	60.1%	—	61.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	78.4%	51.5%	62.7%	—	68.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	48.4%	42.1%	76.4%	—	60.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	50.0%	54.2%	70.7%	—	54.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	61.0%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	91.0%	62.9%	86.4%	—	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	85.0%	63.2%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	92.7%	67.0%	93.4%	—	52.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	94.9%	59.4%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	94.4%	78.2%	84.7%	—	59.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	97.3%	86.5%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	97.8%	89.2%	88.7%	4.9%	63.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	99.0%	75.5%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	99.8%	87.5%	94.1%	—	61.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	81.7%	99.7%	89.3%	34.6%	—	64.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	98.9%	92.8%	92.8%	0.7%	68.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	99.4%	89.2%	94.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	99.6%	88.8%	91.5%	95.7%	73.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	99.8%	89.7%	94.4%	—	67.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	99.8%	91.6%	94.7%	95.7%	69.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	100.0%	85.3%	97.0%	—	72.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	100.0%	88.5%	98.1%	98.1%	70.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	90.8%	96.6%	—	67.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	99.9%	91.7%	98.7%	98.8%	65.4%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	99.9%	91.4%	99.4%	—	71.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	78.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0002
ICON	95%	78.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0025
WeatherNext 2	91%	75.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0088
AIFS Single	82%	74.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0342
IFS HRES	69%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0955
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.2079
National Blend	54%	71.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2162

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗