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KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
99%
ICON
95%
WN2
91%
AIFS
82%
HRES
69%
Consensus
90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 83.9¢Risks 83.90u
VS
HRESNO 16.1¢Risks 16.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +16.10u · HRES −16.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.6% · 2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.6% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.6% · 2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00IFS HRES: 60.3% · 2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00IFS HRES: 60.3% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00IFS HRES: 60.3% · 2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00IFS HRES: 60.3% · 2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00IFS HRES: 60.3% · 2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00IFS HRES: 60.3% · 2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00IFS HRES: 60.3% · 2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00IFS HRES: 60.3% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 60.3% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 60.3% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00IFS HRES: 69.1% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00ICON: 94.6% · 2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:0010-16 15:0510-16 21:5210-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:0079.7%98.7%87.6%60.3%94.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:0079.7%98.7%87.6%60.3%94.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:0079.7%98.7%87.6%60.3%94.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:0079.7%98.7%87.1%60.3%94.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:0079.7%98.7%87.1%60.3%94.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:0079.7%98.7%87.1%60.3%94.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:0085.8%98.7%87.1%60.3%95.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:0085.8%98.7%87.1%60.3%95.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:0085.8%98.7%87.1%60.3%95.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:0085.8%98.7%87.1%60.3%95.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:0085.8%98.7%87.1%69.1%95.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:0085.8%98.7%90.6%69.1%95.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:0085.8%98.7%90.6%69.1%95.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:0085.8%98.7%90.6%69.1%95.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:0081.5%98.7%90.6%69.1%95.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:0081.5%98.7%90.6%69.1%95.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:0081.5%98.7%90.6%69.1%95.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:0081.5%98.7%90.6%69.1%95.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble99%78.1°F3.4°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
ICON95%78.5°F4.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 291%75.4°F3.7°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single82%74.6°F4.6°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS HRES69%73.0°F5.0°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
NWS forecast54%71.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 14:00Pending
National Blend54%71.0°F5.6°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗