KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

46%

44%

43%

41%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.8¢Risks 66.80u

ICONNO 33.2¢Risks 33.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.20u · ICON −33.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	55.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	24.4%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	26.2%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	3.9%	28.2%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	74.8%	20.9%	21.4%	—	27.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	17.5%	64.3%	31.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	50.8%	23.4%	33.0%	—	38.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	20.1%	15.9%	46.8%	—	29.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	20.1%	23.2%	38.5%	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	28.1%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	67.8%	29.1%	58.7%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	55.4%	28.7%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	70.3%	31.4%	71.8%	—	19.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	75.4%	23.8%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	72.9%	42.3%	51.9%	—	23.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	82.3%	54.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	83.7%	58.2%	57.2%	0.4%	24.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	89.9%	35.5%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	95.8%	52.2%	67.9%	—	21.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	95.0%	54.5%	6.3%	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	86.6%	61.5%	61.5%	0.0%	24.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	90.3%	51.2%	65.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	91.5%	48.8%	55.0%	68.0%	26.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	94.0%	48.7%	61.5%	—	20.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	93.9%	51.3%	60.6%	64.4%	20.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	97.5%	36.3%	68.8%	—	21.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	97.1%	40.0%	73.2%	73.2%	18.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	42.5%	61.9%	—	14.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	78.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	74.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	73.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	73.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	41%	73.2°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗