KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

46%

44%

43%

41%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.8¢Risks 66.80u

ICONNO 33.2¢Risks 33.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.20u · ICON −33.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00	41.2%	82.5%	44.0%	29.2%	41.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	41.2%	82.5%	44.0%	29.2%	41.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	41.2%	82.5%	44.0%	29.2%	41.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	41.2%	82.5%	48.3%	29.2%	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	41.2%	82.5%	48.3%	29.2%	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	41.2%	82.5%	48.3%	29.2%	41.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	49.3%	82.5%	48.3%	59.0%	70.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	49.3%	82.5%	48.3%	59.0%	70.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	49.3%	82.5%	48.3%	59.0%	70.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	49.3%	82.5%	48.3%	59.0%	70.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	49.3%	82.5%	48.3%	59.0%	70.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	49.3%	82.4%	50.0%	59.0%	70.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	49.3%	82.4%	50.0%	59.0%	70.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	49.3%	82.4%	50.0%	59.0%	70.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	44.1%	82.4%	50.0%	59.0%	70.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	44.1%	82.4%	50.0%	59.0%	70.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	44.1%	82.4%	50.0%	59.0%	70.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	38.9%	92.2%	52.9%	42.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	38.9%	92.2%	52.9%	42.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	38.9%	92.2%	54.8%	42.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	38.9%	92.2%	54.8%	42.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	38.9%	92.2%	54.8%	42.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	38.9%	92.2%	54.8%	42.5%	40.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	46.8%	92.2%	54.8%	43.1%	41.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	46.8%	92.2%	54.8%	43.1%	41.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	46.8%	92.2%	54.8%	43.1%	41.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	46.8%	92.2%	54.8%	43.1%	41.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	46.8%	92.2%	46.1%	43.1%	41.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	46.8%	92.2%	46.1%	43.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	46.8%	92.2%	46.1%	43.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	43.6%	92.2%	46.1%	43.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	43.6%	92.2%	46.1%	43.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	43.6%	92.2%	46.1%	43.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	43.6%	92.2%	46.1%	43.1%	41.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	78.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	74.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	73.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	73.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	41%	73.2°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗