KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

63%

57%

47%

40%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.2¢Risks 59.25u

HRESNO 40.8¢Risks 40.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.75u · HRES −40.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	15.7%	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	16.8%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	1.8%	18.0%	—	—	19.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	62.4%	12.2%	12.6%	—	17.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	9.6%	50.0%	19.9%	—	21.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	35.8%	13.4%	20.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	10.8%	8.1%	31.6%	—	17.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	10.4%	12.5%	23.8%	—	12.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	15.7%	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	50.9%	16.1%	41.3%	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	37.6%	15.5%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	52.8%	17.2%	54.6%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	58.5%	11.8%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	54.9%	24.7%	33.0%	—	11.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	66.5%	34.4%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	67.9%	37.8%	36.9%	0.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	77.2%	18.3%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	88.1%	31.1%	46.7%	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	85.9%	32.6%	1.8%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	70.0%	38.5%	38.5%	0.0%	10.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	75.6%	28.3%	41.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	77.3%	25.6%	30.9%	43.8%	10.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	81.8%	24.8%	36.1%	—	6.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	80.9%	26.2%	34.3%	38.1%	6.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	89.6%	14.7%	41.7%	—	6.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	87.8%	16.3%	45.7%	45.7%	5.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	17.2%	32.5%	—	3.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	79.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	77.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	77.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	76.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	75.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗