KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

63%

57%

47%

40%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.2¢Risks 59.25u

HRESNO 40.8¢Risks 40.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.75u · HRES −40.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:58+00:00	61.0%	73.1%	39.5%	38.6%	73.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	61.0%	73.1%	45.3%	38.6%	73.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	61.0%	73.1%	45.3%	38.6%	73.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	61.0%	73.1%	45.3%	38.6%	73.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	61.0%	73.1%	45.3%	38.6%	73.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:57+00:00	63.5%	73.1%	45.3%	32.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	63.5%	73.1%	45.3%	32.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	63.5%	73.1%	45.3%	32.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	63.5%	73.1%	45.3%	32.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	63.5%	76.9%	52.6%	32.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	63.5%	76.9%	52.6%	32.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	63.5%	76.9%	52.6%	32.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	63.5%	76.9%	52.6%	32.2%	87.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	61.6%	76.2%	52.6%	32.2%	86.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00	61.6%	76.2%	52.6%	32.2%	86.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	52.6%	32.2%	86.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	52.6%	32.2%	86.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	50.0%	32.2%	86.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:38+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	50.0%	32.2%	86.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	50.0%	32.2%	86.9%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	50.0%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	50.0%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	50.0%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	50.0%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	50.0%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	53.9%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	53.9%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	61.6%	77.9%	53.9%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	60.7%	77.9%	53.9%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	60.7%	77.9%	53.9%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	60.7%	77.9%	53.9%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	60.7%	77.9%	53.9%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00	60.7%	77.9%	53.9%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	60.7%	77.9%	48.7%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	60.7%	77.9%	48.7%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	60.7%	77.9%	48.7%	34.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:57+00:00	62.9%	77.9%	48.7%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	62.9%	77.9%	48.7%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	62.9%	77.9%	48.7%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	62.9%	77.9%	48.7%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00	62.9%	77.9%	48.7%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00	62.9%	78.1%	47.3%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	62.9%	78.1%	47.3%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	62.9%	78.1%	47.3%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	57.1%	78.1%	47.3%	40.4%	62.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	57.1%	78.1%	47.3%	40.4%	63.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	79.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	77.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	77.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	76.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	75.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗