KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

50%

46%

39%

24%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

HRESNO 53.2¢Risks 53.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.20u · HRES −53.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	12.2%	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	13.0%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	1.2%	13.9%	—	—	15.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	55.6%	9.0%	9.3%	—	13.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	6.9%	42.7%	15.2%	—	16.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	28.9%	9.7%	15.5%	—	19.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	7.5%	5.5%	24.8%	—	12.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	7.1%	8.7%	17.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	11.1%	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	42.2%	11.3%	33.0%	—	7.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	29.4%	10.8%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	43.6%	11.9%	45.4%	—	6.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	49.0%	7.7%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	45.1%	17.7%	24.7%	—	7.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	57.0%	25.7%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	58.2%	28.5%	27.6%	0.0%	7.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	68.4%	12.1%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	81.7%	22.1%	36.1%	—	5.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	78.6%	23.1%	0.9%	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	59.2%	28.0%	28.0%	0.0%	5.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	65.3%	19.1%	30.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	66.9%	16.6%	20.8%	32.0%	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	72.0%	15.8%	24.8%	—	3.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	70.5%	16.5%	23.0%	26.2%	3.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	81.8%	8.1%	28.8%	—	3.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	78.8%	8.9%	31.8%	31.8%	2.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	9.2%	20.2%	—	1.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	69%	79.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	50%	77.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	77.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	76.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	74.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗