KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

50%

46%

39%

24%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

HRESNO 53.2¢Risks 53.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.20u · HRES −53.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:58+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	34.0%	30.4%	52.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	34.0%	30.4%	52.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	34.0%	30.4%	52.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	36.6%	30.4%	52.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	36.6%	30.4%	52.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	36.6%	30.4%	52.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	36.6%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	36.6%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	36.6%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	36.6%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	36.6%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	34.0%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	34.0%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	47.0%	69.4%	34.0%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	48.0%	69.4%	34.0%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	48.0%	69.4%	34.0%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	48.0%	69.4%	34.0%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00	48.0%	69.4%	34.0%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	48.0%	69.4%	34.0%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	48.0%	69.4%	39.2%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	48.0%	69.4%	39.2%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	48.0%	69.4%	39.2%	24.2%	54.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	46.1%	69.4%	39.2%	24.2%	50.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	46.1%	69.4%	39.2%	24.2%	50.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	46.1%	69.4%	39.2%	24.2%	50.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	46.1%	69.4%	39.2%	24.2%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	69%	79.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	50%	77.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	77.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	76.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	74.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗