KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≤ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.3¢Risks 4.65u

EPSNO 90.7¢Risks 45.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.35u · EPS −45.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	40.1%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	36.6%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	77.2%	33.0%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	4.2%	40.3%	39.6%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	43.4%	7.1%	26.6%	—	25.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	12.2%	33.7%	23.9%	—	19.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	35.9%	42.1%	13.1%	—	25.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	33.8%	30.0%	16.8%	—	30.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	23.9%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	3.8%	22.1%	6.2%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	6.9%	21.5%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	2.8%	18.4%	2.5%	—	29.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	1.7%	23.8%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	1.9%	10.2%	6.5%	—	23.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	0.8%	5.4%	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	0.6%	4.0%	4.2%	87.2%	19.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	11.1%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.0%	4.5%	1.7%	—	19.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	0.0%	3.5%	43.3%	—	17.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	0.2%	2.1%	2.1%	96.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.1%	3.3%	1.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	0.1%	3.3%	2.3%	0.9%	10.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	0.0%	2.8%	1.3%	—	13.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	0.0%	2.0%	1.1%	0.9%	12.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.0%	4.0%	0.5%	—	9.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	0.0%	2.7%	0.3%	0.3%	10.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	1.8%	0.5%	—	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	18%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	12%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	74.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	75.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	78.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	78.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 68°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-LE68
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: San Diego stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗