KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≤ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.3¢Risks 4.65u

EPSNO 90.7¢Risks 45.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.35u · EPS −45.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00	10.3%	0.2%	4.5%	25.5%	2.2%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	10.3%	0.2%	4.5%	25.5%	2.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	10.3%	0.2%	4.5%	25.5%	2.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	10.3%	0.2%	4.5%	25.5%	2.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	10.3%	0.2%	4.5%	25.5%	2.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	10.3%	0.2%	4.8%	25.5%	2.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	10.3%	0.2%	4.8%	25.5%	2.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	10.3%	0.2%	4.8%	25.5%	2.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	4.8%	25.5%	2.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	4.8%	25.5%	2.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	4.8%	25.5%	2.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	4.8%	25.5%	2.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	4.8%	18.4%	2.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	3.2%	18.4%	2.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	3.2%	18.4%	2.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	3.2%	18.4%	2.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	3.2%	18.4%	2.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	3.2%	18.4%	2.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	3.2%	18.4%	2.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	3.2%	18.4%	2.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	3.2%	18.4%	2.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	3.0%	18.4%	2.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	3.0%	18.4%	2.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	3.0%	18.4%	2.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	18%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	12%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	74.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	75.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	78.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	78.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 68°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-LE68
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: San Diego stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗