KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

95%

95%

89%

74%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 86.3¢Risks 86.30u

HRESNO 13.7¢Risks 13.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +13.70u · HRES −13.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	25.9%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	26.2%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	1.8%	49.3%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	25.2%	30.5%	15.8%	—	58.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	22.6%	30.4%	76.8%	—	50.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	18.9%	33.7%	21.1%	—	48.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	78.2%	73.9%	77.6%	—	45.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	88.8%	38.5%	70.7%	—	46.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	71.2%	32.6%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	81.0%	69.3%	85.9%	—	62.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	95.7%	71.3%	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	98.3%	81.0%	85.1%	—	63.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	98.1%	77.6%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	99.8%	80.3%	93.2%	—	63.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	97.8%	86.0%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.4%	93.9%	89.2%	87.7%	—	63.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	96.2%	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	89.1%	98.3%	85.7%	78.7%	—	68.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	97.6%	98.5%	27.6%	—	65.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	98.1%	96.9%	97.5%	1.4%	64.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	84.0%	96.0%	98.8%	93.8%	—	71.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	99.9%	98.0%	94.8%	88.8%	70.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	94.4%	95.1%	—	74.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	99%	81.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	78.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	76.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	77.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	73.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗