KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

95%

95%

89%

74%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 86.3¢Risks 86.30u

HRESNO 13.7¢Risks 13.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +13.70u · HRES −13.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:13+00:00	67.2%	74.1%	65.0%	56.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	67.2%	74.1%	67.4%	56.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	67.2%	74.1%	67.4%	56.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	67.2%	74.1%	67.4%	56.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	62.6%	74.1%	67.4%	56.0%	86.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	62.6%	74.1%	67.4%	56.0%	86.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	62.6%	74.1%	67.4%	56.0%	86.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	62.6%	74.1%	67.4%	56.0%	86.5%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	62.6%	74.1%	67.4%	56.0%	86.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	62.6%	69.5%	67.8%	56.0%	86.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	62.6%	69.5%	67.8%	56.0%	86.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	62.6%	69.5%	67.8%	56.0%	86.5%
2026-10-16T13:29:04+00:00	71.4%	69.5%	67.8%	44.5%	86.5%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	71.4%	69.5%	67.8%	44.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	71.4%	71.6%	67.8%	44.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	71.4%	71.6%	67.8%	44.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	71.4%	71.6%	67.8%	44.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	71.4%	71.6%	75.2%	44.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	71.4%	71.6%	75.2%	44.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	71.4%	71.6%	75.2%	44.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00	77.2%	71.6%	75.2%	44.5%	92.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	77.2%	71.6%	75.2%	44.5%	92.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	77.2%	71.6%	75.2%	44.5%	92.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	77.2%	71.6%	75.2%	44.5%	92.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	77.2%	71.6%	75.2%	57.5%	92.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	77.2%	71.6%	84.1%	57.5%	92.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	77.2%	71.6%	84.1%	57.5%	92.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	77.2%	71.6%	84.1%	57.5%	92.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	77.8%	71.6%	84.1%	57.5%	92.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	77.8%	71.6%	84.1%	57.5%	92.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	77.8%	71.6%	84.1%	57.5%	92.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	77.8%	71.6%	84.1%	57.5%	92.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	77.8%	71.6%	84.1%	57.5%	92.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	77.8%	71.6%	85.8%	57.5%	92.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	77.8%	71.6%	85.8%	57.5%	92.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	77.8%	71.6%	85.8%	57.5%	92.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:19+00:00	94.2%	71.6%	85.8%	70.5%	88.0%
2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00	94.2%	71.6%	85.8%	70.5%	88.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	94.2%	71.6%	85.8%	70.5%	88.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	94.2%	71.6%	85.8%	70.5%	88.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	94.2%	71.6%	85.8%	70.5%	88.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	94.2%	90.1%	95.7%	70.5%	88.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	94.2%	90.1%	95.7%	70.5%	88.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	94.2%	90.1%	95.7%	70.5%	88.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	90.5%	90.1%	95.7%	70.5%	88.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	90.4%	89.9%	95.7%	70.5%	87.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:21+00:00	90.4%	89.3%	95.7%	70.5%	87.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	90.4%	89.3%	95.7%	70.5%	87.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	90.4%	89.3%	91.4%	70.5%	87.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	90.4%	89.3%	91.4%	70.5%	87.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	90.4%	89.3%	91.4%	70.5%	87.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	90.4%	89.3%	91.4%	70.5%	87.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	93.9%	89.3%	91.4%	73.9%	98.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	93.9%	89.3%	91.4%	73.9%	98.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	93.9%	89.3%	91.4%	73.9%	98.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	93.9%	89.3%	91.4%	73.9%	98.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	93.9%	89.3%	94.6%	73.9%	98.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	93.9%	89.3%	94.6%	73.9%	98.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	93.9%	89.3%	94.6%	73.9%	98.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	93.9%	89.3%	94.6%	73.9%	98.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	94.9%	89.3%	94.6%	73.9%	98.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	94.9%	89.3%	94.6%	73.9%	98.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	94.9%	89.3%	94.6%	73.9%	98.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	99%	81.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	78.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	76.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	77.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	73.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗