WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≤ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
15%
EPS
5%
AIFS
2%
WN2
1%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 7.6¢Risks 3.82u
VS
ICONNO 92.3¢Risks 46.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.17u · ICON −46.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 65.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 69.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 63.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 62.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 56.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 55.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 51.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 74.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 66.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 51.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 94.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 42.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0062.1%————29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0035.9%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0024.4%————22.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0035.9%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0016.9%————22.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0022.0%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0024.8%————18.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0025.7%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0036.9%————20.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0026.5%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0012.6%————22.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0021.2%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0016.9%————20.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0015.6%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0046.8%————19.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0041.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0065.6%————25.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0045.7%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0041.8%————21.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0043.9%—26.4%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0055.7%————26.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0044.8%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0048.2%—63.8%——34.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0040.0%—52.4%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0056.0%————38.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0070.1%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0076.1%————37.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0062.0%—39.3%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0080.2%—62.2%——41.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0056.0%—10.6%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0063.3%96.0%37.4%——35.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0071.0%—52.8%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0045.1%62.4%56.3%74.3%—28.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0071.7%—68.0%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0078.0%65.0%55.8%13.6%—35.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0072.6%—46.3%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0074.9%69.1%51.5%66.3%—36.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0049.2%—57.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0054.0%11.9%14.9%12.3%—39.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0045.1%—13.9%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0037.7%5.1%45.0%16.8%—36.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0035.8%16.2%50.9%——42.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0012.7%9.4%17.2%6.5%—22.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0019.0%1.5%15.5%——20.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0012.9%0.5%9.0%6.6%—20.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0010.0%0.5%10.8%——20.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:005.9%0.1%9.0%2.4%—20.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:006.3%0.6%5.7%——17.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:007.4%1.9%4.0%4.7%—19.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:006.5%1.0%8.3%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:003.8%0.4%5.3%9.0%—14.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:005.4%0.5%0.3%51.1%—16.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:006.8%0.4%0.7%0.5%94.6%16.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:005.5%0.9%0.2%1.6%—11.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:004.6%0.0%0.4%1.2%3.3%12.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:002.8%—1.3%1.1%—9.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES15%73.7°F5.0°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
National Blend7%75.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%77.4°F5.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast5%75.0°F3.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
AIFS Single2%78.0°F4.6°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%77.2°F3.7°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
ICON<1%81.4°F4.9°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 68°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-LE68
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: San Diego stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗