KSAN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≤ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 17.3¢Risks 17.30u

EPSNO 82.7¢Risks 82.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.70u · EPS −82.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	39.5%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	53.2%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	95.3%	33.0%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	42.3%	30.5%	89.8%	—	32.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	35.7%	27.2%	23.2%	—	34.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	14.2%	36.5%	34.4%	—	33.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	33.7%	35.9%	12.7%	—	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	35.6%	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	35.3%	36.1%	22.5%	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	43.2%	35.0%	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	43.9%	22.1%	21.4%	—	30.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	48.2%	24.2%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	41.8%	32.2%	10.6%	—	29.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	4.0%	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	34.8%	29.6%	20.3%	—	24.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	22.6%	22.6%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	14.5%	25.9%	7.1%	—	24.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	11.6%	24.5%	—	—	18.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	30.1%	18.3%	5.9%	60.8%	18.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	19.0%	34.6%	—	17.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	32%	69.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	15%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	71.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	73.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	72.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261022-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: San Diego stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗