KSAN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

70%

51%

31%

30%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 51.2¢Risks 51.25u

ICONNO 48.8¢Risks 48.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.75u · ICON −48.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	56.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	5.0%	72.4%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	61.1%	73.1%	19.4%	—	46.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	67.7%	96.7%	67.7%	—	47.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	56.1%	81.1%	84.9%	—	48.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	78.8%	96.2%	80.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	79.9%	92.0%	96.6%	—	51.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	55.1%	96.4%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	85.4%	83.3%	90.3%	64.6%	48.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	—	78.5%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	67.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	75.7°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	72.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	67.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗