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KSAN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
72%
AIFS
70%
HRES
51%
EPS
31%
ICON
30%
Consensus
52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 51.2¢Risks 51.25u
VS
ICONNO 48.8¢Risks 48.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.75u · ICON −48.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-10-17T07:45:20+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-17T07:45:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.1% · 2026-10-17T07:45:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.1% · 2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T07:45:20+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T07:45:20+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0010-17 07:4510-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:45:20+00:0070.5%31.3%72.1%51.2%30.4%
2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:0070.5%31.3%72.1%51.2%30.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:0070.5%31.3%72.1%51.2%30.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:0070.5%31.3%72.1%51.2%30.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0070.5%31.3%72.1%51.2%30.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 272%75.7°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
AIFS Single70%75.6°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend54%73.0°F5.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES51%72.7°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble31%70.7°F3.7°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
ICON30%67.4°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗