KSAN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

57%

56%

55%

35%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 49.4¢Risks 49.35u

EPSNO 50.6¢Risks 50.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +50.65u · EPS −50.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	—	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	43.5%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	2.4%	60.0%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	47.2%	60.4%	11.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	53.6%	92.9%	53.6%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	40.9%	69.1%	74.2%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	65.5%	91.6%	67.7%	—	34.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	66.2%	83.8%	92.0%	—	35.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	38.2%	91.5%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	73.1%	70.1%	80.4%	47.4%	31.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	63.2%	—	—	27.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	64%	77.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	75.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	75.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	75.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	72.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗