KSAN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

57%

56%

55%

35%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 49.4¢Risks 49.35u

EPSNO 50.6¢Risks 50.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +50.65u · EPS −50.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:15:00+00:00	57.6%	21.7%	53.1%	46.3%	66.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	57.6%	21.7%	50.8%	46.3%	66.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	57.6%	21.7%	50.8%	46.3%	66.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	57.6%	21.7%	50.8%	46.3%	66.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	57.6%	21.7%	50.8%	46.3%	66.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:58+00:00	67.8%	21.7%	50.8%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	67.8%	21.7%	50.8%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	67.8%	21.7%	50.8%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	67.8%	21.7%	50.8%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	67.8%	33.9%	58.5%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	67.8%	33.9%	58.5%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	67.8%	33.9%	58.5%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	67.8%	33.9%	58.5%	54.2%	72.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	64.4%	34.1%	58.5%	54.2%	72.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00	64.4%	34.1%	58.5%	54.2%	72.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	64.4%	35.0%	58.5%	54.2%	72.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	64.4%	35.0%	58.5%	54.2%	72.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	64.4%	35.0%	54.3%	54.2%	72.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:39+00:00	64.4%	35.0%	54.3%	54.2%	72.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	64.4%	35.0%	54.3%	54.2%	72.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	59.5%	35.0%	54.3%	56.0%	63.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	59.5%	35.0%	54.3%	56.0%	63.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	59.5%	35.0%	54.3%	56.0%	63.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	59.5%	35.0%	54.3%	56.0%	63.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	59.5%	35.0%	54.3%	56.0%	63.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	59.5%	35.0%	55.1%	56.0%	63.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	59.5%	35.0%	55.1%	56.0%	63.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	59.5%	35.0%	55.1%	56.0%	63.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	57.3%	35.0%	55.1%	56.0%	63.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	57.3%	35.0%	55.1%	56.0%	63.7%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	57.3%	35.0%	55.1%	56.0%	63.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	57.3%	35.0%	55.1%	56.0%	63.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	64%	77.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	75.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	75.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	75.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	72.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗